For 2017-18, the area seeded to field crops in Canada is forecast to increase marginally compared to 2016.
The area seeded to oilseeds is expected to increase while the area seeded decreases for both grains and pulses crops. For all crops, average or trend yields have been assumed. For most crops average yields are expected to decrease compared to 2016-17.
The production of grains and oilseeds and the production of pulses and special crops are forecast to decrease by 3 and 4 percent, respectively so that total field crop production is expected to decrease from 91.7 Mt in 2016-17 to 88.1 Mt in 2017-18.
However, due to higher carry-in stocks, total crop supply is forecast to decrease by only 1%.
In general, world grain prices are expected to be pressured by abundant world grain supplies but grain prices in Canada will be supported by the low value of the Canadian dollar which is forecast to be slightly higher than C$1.35 per US dollar.
For 2016-17, the total production of all field crops in Canada is estimated at 91.7 million tonnes (Mt) which is about 7 per cent higher than last year.
This estimate incorporates near-record estimates of average yields, as reported by Statistics Canada in its Principal Field Crop report which was released on December 6, 2016.
However, the late harvest in Western Canada had a negative impact on crop quality in the affected regions.
Total crop supply, domestic use and carry-out stocks are all expected to increase due to higher production despite lower carry-in stocks.
The average price for wheat ex-durum is expected to be the same as 2015-16 but the average prices for canola and soybeans are expected to be slightly higher than last year.
For coarse grains, prices are generally expected to be lower than last year.